Why I think Prasurgel will not be a blockbuster

Nov/06/2007 09:42 Filed in: Pharma Business
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Perception is reality and there is a LOT of buzz already about Lilly's Prasurgel on the Web even before the NDA is submitted to the FDA. This is a classic example of how influencers are speaking up and spreading the word while others read, watch and wait. Given what I have read from salespeople, physicians, analysts and others I do not believe that Prasurgel will be a blockbuster and actually could wind up like another of Lilly's products like Xigris.



Investors watch drug developments more closely than physicians these days. Analysts are all watching the develop of this new Lilly drug so that they can either pounce on the stock and buy it or recommend that investors sell now before more bad news hits the street. "Prasurgel kills as many as it saves" is the headline on one post on Cafe Pharma while others in the financial community feel that the FDA will require more clinical trials before considering for approval. The basic question however is: does this drug have a place in the market?


Here is why I think Prasurgel will not be a big product for Lilly:


1. It works but causes bleeding. Risk = reward and I don't believe it has enough of an advantage over Plavix.

2. Cost: Lilly will surely set a premium price for Plasurgel and with Plavix coming off patent in 2011 it may be harder to get approval for this products use.

3. Competition: There are already two major drugs in development to compete with Plavix and if they can demonstrate superior effectiveness with a lower chance of bleeding they will have a winner.

4. BUZZ: HCP's are already abuzz with talk on this drug..the only ones that seem to agree is has a use are the ones in Lilly's pocket.

5. Clinical Trials: I believe the FDA will require additional clinical trials for this product or at the very least require a black box warning.

6. It's too new: Too many problems with the use of new drugs. HCP's will wait until either more clinical trials are done or it has been used by more patients before deciding if the risk is acceptable.

7. Consider the source: HCP's should believe Lilly data why? What we have here is a credibility problem !


I personally am very reluctant to try and NEW pharmaceutical product and I think that a lot of people feel the same way. I want to know that a drug has been on the market for a while and has been tested before I put it into my body. The overall success of this drug will depend essentially on two things; how many doctors Lilly can reach and convince (via grants or thought leader dollars) and the cost benefit analysis that pharmacy benefit managers will surely use to determine the drugs benefits to patients.
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